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Fragile Ethiopian Peace Crumbles as TPLF Forces Clash with Federal Army

The 2022 peace deal is unraveling as regional militants and government forces trade artillery fire, sparking a new refugee crisis.

Foreign PolicyPublished August 3, 2026 at 11:49 AM
A rusted, wrecked tank lies on the side of a rural road. Mountains are visible in the background.

The fragile stability in northern Ethiopia has shattered, with intense fighting erupting between the Ethiopian federal army and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).

The clashes, which broke out Saturday in the strategically sensitive border town of Shererina, mark the most significant escalation since the African Union-brokered peace deal was signed in 2022.

As heavy artillery and drones were deployed, hundreds of civilians and wounded combatants fled across the border into Sudan, raising alarms that the region is sliding back into full-scale civil war.

The TPLF, which has effectively seized control of Tigray by ousting the interim administration, accused the federal government of launching an 'open war' to subjugate the region. Conversely, federal minister Abraham Belay placed the blame squarely on the 'TPLF clique,' warning of severe consequences if the aggression continues.

While the federal government has called for a return to negotiations, the reality on the ground suggests that the 2022 agreement has failed to resolve the underlying territorial disputes, particularly regarding western Tigray.

Compounding the instability are fears that this conflict could become a proxy battlefield for the ongoing civil war in neighboring Sudan, further destabilizing a volatile corner of East Africa.

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